Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Stanley Cup Playoffs 2011: Western Conference Round 1

Vancouver (1) vs Chicago (8)

So we have last year's winner versus what some, including myself, are calling this year's winner. Vancouver soared to the top of the entire NHL this year, courtesy of 54-19-9.

Offence

Vancouver

The deadly Sedin twins did it again this year.

Daniel finished with 104 points, while Henrik, despite just 19 goals, was ten back with 94 points.

And there were others, of course.

Ryan Kesler popped in 41 to tie Daniel for team lead in goals. Mikael Samuelsson had 50 points. Alexandre Burrows scored 26 goals for third on the team. Mason Raymond is the third most dangerous left winger on the team as he had 39 points in 70 games.

From behind the blue line, Christian Ehrhoff had 14 goals and 36 assists. Another defenceman, Alexander Edler had 33 points in only 51 games.

Injury-wise, the Canucks will have to make due without center Manny Maholtra, who suffered an eye injury and will miss the entire playoffs.

Overall, though, the Canucks lead the NHL in goals for with 262.

Chicago

So the defending champions slipped a bit. The most obvious is on offence as the team scored just 219 goals, tying Nashville for second fewest goals among April teams.

Jonathan Toews had 76 points to lead the team.

The offence did have a nice balance to it, as 10 players scored 36 or more points.

Patrick Kane averaged a point a game despite missing 9 games. And the other Patrick, Sharp, had 71 points and led the team with 34 goals. Marian Hossa, trying to make it 4 Stanley Cup finals in four years, had 57 points in 65 games. Another right winger, Thomas Kopecky, had 42 points.

The teams offence from the blueline featured Brent Seabrook (48 points) and Duncan Keith (45 points).

Other players to watch before we move on, just in case they catch fire and I forget:

Bryan Bickell (17 goals)

Dave Bolland (15 goals)

Troy Brouwer (17)

Edge: (Slight) Vancouver

Defence

Vancouver

Want evidence of Daniel’s play on defence this year? Check it out: a plus 30 for second on the team. His brother’s +26 isn’t bad either. That was also Burrow’s rating, as well.

As for defencemen, Ehrhoff was only plus 19, but Dan Hamhuis, a slightly less offensive player, was a plus 29 in only 64 games. The team leader was Kevin Bieksa with a plus 32.

Edler was a plus 13.

Chalk it all up and Vancouver also led the NHL in fewest goals surrendered, 185.

Chicago

Brian Campbell was a +28 in only 65 games. Toews showed some all around game as he notched a plus 25 to lead all forwards.

Nicklas Hjalmarsson was a plus 13. Another defenceman, Brent Seabrook, was a 0 in the plus minus, but his defence was better than that. Ducan Keith was a minus 1 despite his offence.

Chicago as a team, permitted 225 goals. That's more than Vancouver, but it should be noted, three other teams still playing, (Detroit, Anaheim, Phoenix) gave up more.

Edge: (Slight) Vancouver

Goaltending

Vancouver

Another typical season for Roberto Luongo.

League leader in wins (38), fantastic GAA (2.11 for second in the league), great S% (.928 for 4th in the league). Add to that, he won the Jennings trophy this year with backup Corey Schneider, for allowing the fewest goals.

Speaking of which, I don’t expect Cory to play much this postseason. Too bad, because he put up some good numbers. Of the 25 games he played, he won 16 of them and posted a 2.23 GAA. His save percentage was .929.

Chicago
 
The Blackhawks used another Cory, Corey Crawford this season. This will be his first NHL postseason experience. Okay, that’s one minus. Okay, he's played here before, happy? His postseason experience at the NHL consists of 16 minutes in Chicago's drive to the 2009 Final Four.

Now fore the good part: He had a great regular season this year. In just 57 games, he won 33 of them. His S% could have been better, .917, but his GAA was 8th (2.30).

But will they be enough against Vancouver? If his name is Dryden, Roy, and perhaps Halak…

In the offseason, the Hawks acquired Maty Turco, hoping he would lead the way, when he struggled (11-11-3, 3.02, .897), the Hawks decided to go with Crawford. Despite all that, Turco, with his postseason experience, might see some action.

Edge: (Wide) Vancouver

Prediction: Vancouver in six games

San Jose (2) vs Los Angeles (7)

Did you know, by the way, that there are more teams from sunny California in the postseason than from ALL of Canada? Somewhere, Gretzky, McNall and Pocklington are all smiling. There little parley of 23 years ago has taken the game that far. That far south!

Speaking of which, the Great One’s old team outscored the opposition on 46 occasions for the second straight year. This had, at one time, been a long time coming for the Kings. They won 46 games in 1990/91, with Gretzky there, and it took them until 2009/10 to get that total again.

Meanwhile, San Jose returns with a new goaltender (who happened to win the Cup last season) and look to build on their final four appearance a year ago.

Offence

San Jose

The Fierce Fish lit the red lamp 248 times this season, third among Western Conference teams kicking around this spring.

Let’s start with the experience of Joe Thornton. Hard to believe it, but he’s now 31 years old. But he had 70 points. Worse for LA, that didn't even lead the team.

That honour went to another 31 year old, Patrick Marleau

But no two players can do it all by themselves. Here's who also chipped in:

Joe Pavelski (66 points)

Dany Heatley (64 points)

Ryane Clowe (62 points)

Logan Coutler (56 points)

Devin Setoguchi (22 goals)

And from the point, Danny Boyle (41 points)

Los Angeles

The Kings, by contrast, netted just 219 goals, using a more defence oriented system in front of Jonathan Quick.

Justin Williams is a little banged up, and leading scorer Kopitar is out. So here is what the Crowned Ones must go with.

Williams had 57 points, as did Dustin Brown. Veteran Ryan Smyth played all 82 games and showed he's still got it by getting 47 points. Jarrett Stoll, now proabably the team's top center, scored 20 goals and got 43 points.

Two other forwards to look at: Michal Handzus and Wayne Simmons.

Jack Johnson led LA the defence in offense with 42 points. Also getting it done from the point is DD, Drew Doughty, with 11 goals and 40 points.

Edge: (Wide) San Jose

Defence

San Jose

Coutler lead all forwards with a plus 18, and Clowe's +13 isn't bad.

The team defence was lead by Jason Demers, who posted a +19.  Marc-Edouard Vlasic was a plus 14.

Ian White played with 3 teams and was a plus 3. However, it should be noted, he was a plus 9 in only 23 games with San Jose.

Los Angeles

The Kings were one of three teams to allow less than 200 goals in among spring teams in the Western Hemisphere this season.

Kopitar lead the team with +25, so this will be something they will have to work around. Two right wingers were both plus 17 and 14: Brown and Williams.

Doughty lead the defence with a plus minus of +13. Alec Martinez was a plus 11 in 60 games.

Willie Mitchell was a plus 4 in 57 games.

Edge: (Slight, due to Kopitar's absence) San Jose

Goaltending

San Jose

With the departure of Nabakov, the Sharks turned to the man who ended the 49 year drought for the Hawks, Antti Niemi.

Niemi has proven that his leading the Hawks to the Stanley Cup last year was no fluke, by posting the following numbers with his new team:

35 wins, .920 S%, 2.38 ERA

Okay, but remember how good he was last year in the playoffs? The Hawks wouldn't have done it without A.N.!

The backup is another A.N., Antero Nittymaki, whose numbers (12-7-3, 2.72, .896), weren’t that great. I imagine that San Jose will be reluctant, at best, to use him if Niemi falters.

Los Angeles

The quick hands of Jonathan Quick return for another postseason go around. I’m sure he wants to make it longer than six games, like last year against the Canucks.

He didn't play as much as he did in the 2009/10 season, but this year he really upped and dropped some of his numbers.

He dropped his GAA from 2.54 in 2009/10 to 2.24 this season. That was good enough for 5th in the league. His save percentage shot up 11 points from last year, for a .918 mark.

Now, his win total dropped because he played in 11 less games this year, but his 6 shutouts placed him 6th among league leaders.

The backup is another Jonathan, Bernier. He time in the twine was just 25. His S% wasn't bad .913 and his GAA 2.48 was good. A good sign was his 3 shutouts.

Edge: (Slight) San Jose

Prediction: San Jose in seven games (Slight every time!)

Detroit (3) vs Phoenix (6)

Last year, these to teams squared off in a fine seven gamer. This year they're back again. Can Detroit do it again without the Z man?

Offence

Detroit

The Red Wings were second among all teams in goals for (261). But having said that, Zetterberg had 80 points to lead the team. Fill in the void, the Motor City boys must!

Detroit comes in with the usual mix of a balanced attack. After Z, you have Pavel Datsyuk with 59 points, Johan Franzen with 55 points and Dan Cleary with 46 points.

And then there were more.

Todd Bertuzzi (45 points), center Valtteri Filppula (39 points), Jiri Hudler (37 points), Thomas Holdstrom (37 points), Darren Helm (32 points), Patrick Eaves (13 goals in 63 games) and Drew Miller (10 goals in 67 games).

And the defence did not rest on offence.

Nik Lidstrom was second on the team in points (62). Brian Rafalski had 48 points in only 63 games. Plus, another Nik, Kronwall, had 37 points.

Phoenix

The Coyotes scored 241 goals against as a team. That is exactly in the middle of the pack (15 out of 30).

Shane Doan had only 60 points, but it was enough to lead the way.

Ryan Whitney had 57 points from the left side of the attack.

Radim Vrbata chipped in with 48 points from the right.

The team had many players get above 26 points. Some were done in considerably less than 82 games, it should be noted.

Eric Belanger and Lauri Korpikoski each had 40 points. Former Leaf, Lee Stepniak had 38 points. Taylor Pyatt had 31 points.

Now for some players that had some injury woes.

Scottie Upshall and Martin Hanzal (16 goals in 61 games, each). Kyle Turris, (11 goals in 65 games).

The top defenceman was Keith Yandle with 59 points. And that was in 82 games.

Edge: (Slight, due to Zetterberg's absence) Detroit

Defence

Detroit

Lidstrom should get at least some votes for the Norris trophy, but strangely, he was a minus this year (-2).

It was Justin Abdelkader who led Detroit with a plus 15.

Datsyuk was a plus 11.

Rafalski led all defenceman with plus 11.

Jonathan Ericsson was second among the "stay-at-home" defenceman with a +8 rating.

Detroit's defence wasn't quite up to speed with what it had been in previous years, as they permitted 241 goals. That's the most of the top eight team in the Western Conference.

Phoenix

The Howling ones gave up 226 goals.

Adrian Aucion was a plus 17 to lead the team. In close second was Keith Yandle with a plus 12.

Some of the forwards +/- was pretty good. Mikkel Boedker and Pyatt were both a +11, as was Belanger.

Two other defenceman posted good +/-, albeit in limited duty. David Schlemko was a plus 8 in only 43 games and Sami Lepisto was a plus 7 in only 51 games.

Edge: (Slight, due to Lidstrom's strong postseason history) Detroit

Goaltending

Detroit

The Red Wings will go with Jamie Howard again, although they did use former Leaf, Joey McDonald and veteran Chris Osgood in some stretches.

Howard overcame a strong challenge from the ‘Yotes last postseason and can expect more of the same this time around.

His record was 37 wins, 17 losses, 5 ties. But his other numbers weren’t very good, and he has yet to prove himself in postseason.

Chris Osgood has proven himself in postseason, but that was two seasons ago. Actually, he led Detroit to Stanley Cups in 1998 and 2008. But this year, he didn’t play much, and it is doubtful that he can help in the postseason because of the rust.

Joey McDonald only played a little more than Osgood (15 games).

Phoenix

The Howl of the Hollow Iron Cage, Illya Bryzgalov, was 5th in the league in games played. He won 36 games for 8th, lost 20 and lost 10 in overtime or shootout. His 2.48 GAA wasn’t that great, but his shutouts (7) and S% .921 suggest he can steal games for you.

He’ll be backed up another 30 + year old, Jason LaBarbera. His record wasn't very good (7-6-3 in 17 games). His GAA was quite high, 3.26, and his S% was .909. I don't think he'll play unless Brygalov really get shelled.

But if Breezer plays the way I expect him too...

Edge: (Slight) Phoenix

Prediction: Detroit in six games

Anaheim (4) vs Nashville (5)

The two teams that both finished with 99 points (like Phoenix).  A series that may very well see the return to postseason of Ray Emery. That is enough to make this series one to watch. Not to mention you have Nashville, still looking for it's first ever playoff series win since coming into the league back in 1998/99.

Topping it off is the Rocket Richard trophy winner, Corey Perry.

Still, will we see Emery?

And what will we see of him?

Offence

Anaheim

Perry is the lone man to net 50, and he added 48 assists to lead the team in points.

Watch out for Temmu Selanne. This might be his last ever playoffs. Given his flare for the dramatic, this might be a curtain call to remember!

However, I doubt he'll hang 'em up. Wait 'till I tell you about his stats.

In only 73 games, the 40 year old Fin had 31 goals and 49 assists. That sound like a guy whose ready for retirement? Finnish Flash and not Finished Flash!

Ryan Getzlaf was the third Duck to average a point a game, as he led the team in assists (57) in only 67 games.

The big four is rounded out by Bobby Ryan, the left winger, who got 71 points.

Veteran forward Saku Koivu had 45 points, while former Leaf Jason Blake had 32.

As for the defenceman , we start with Lubomir Visnovsky, who recorded 68 points in 81 games, although only 18 of them were goals. But look out for newcomer Cam Fowler, who had 40 points in 76 games.

Nashville

They were a low scoring bunch, but they managed to score only 20 goals less as a team than Anaheim. The Predators don't have that "one guy" or "Big Three (or Four)", but they are sort of like Buffalo. A lot of guys that can shoot and move the puck!

Sergi Kostitsyn led the Preds with just 50 points. I really think he might end up being someone that Montreal regrets letting leave Les Habs.

Tying him for scoring lead was someone who only played 64 games, Martin Erat. He's played his entire career in Nashville, so he too, will hope to make it into round 2.

Then we have right winger Patric Horqvist with 21-26-47, Dave Legwand, 17-24-41. Colin Wilson scored 16 goals, while Joel Ward, Steve Sullivan and J.P. Dumont added 10 each.

Shea Weber accumulated 48 points from the blueline and Ryan Suter added 39 in 70 games.

Edge: (Slight) Anaheim

Defence

Anaheim

Toni Lydman led the team with +32. Visnovsky was also a plus 18. Neither of these two defencman took many penalties, so they won't be riding the pine of the penalty box when they're scored on, either!

Ryan had the best +/- among forwards with a plus 15. Getzlaf was a plus 14.

Luca Sbisa, Andreas Lilja and Fowler were all minuses, however. As was Sheldon Brookbank and Francois Beauchemin.

Anaheim gave up 235 goals for second most in the Western Conference among postseason teams.

Nashville

The Preds gave up just 194 for second fewest in the entire NHL.

Erat was tops among forwards with +14. Legwand was a plus 13, while Hornqvist and Kostitsyn were plus 11 and 10, respectively.

Also at +10 was defensive center Marcel Goc, but he hasn't played a game since Feb 17. It looks doubtful that he will play, at least in this series.

Suter led defencemen (and the team) with a plus 20. Cody Franson was a plus 10 and KK, Kevin Kline, (not the actor!) was a plus 9. I guess they are going to use Jonathon Blum, who appeared in only 23 games. Even so, he was a plus 8. It will be interesting to see if he plays and how he plays!

Edge: (wide) Nashville

Goaltending

Anaheim 

From the looks of things, it will be Ray Emery, one of the games finest characters, in net for the Ducks. No, he’s no lame duck, but he must feel like a roasted turkey after all that surgery. The Ducks took a chance on him late in the season, and he went 7-2 in ten games. Actually, his numbers were better than even that. Low GAA: 2.28, high S% .926.

With regular John Hiller out, it will probably be Emery’s job throughout this entire series.

The other goalie they might go to however, is Dan Ellis. His numbers weren't far off Emery's. He played three more games than Ray, went 8-3-1 with a GAA of 2.39 and a S% .917.

Nashville

The Predators will go with Pekka Rinne. He's kind of like Ken Dryden: 6-5. This guy just gets better with every season.

As for his numbers, behold:

33 wins, .930 S%, 2.12 GAA.

Okay, can he keep it up in postseason? He played fairly good last season in the playoffs, but wasn't enough as the Preds bowed out to the eventual champs, Chicago, in six games.

Should he falter, there is Anders Lindback. A rookie. Like Rinne, he's tall (6-6). He was put out for 22 outings and acquitted himself quite admirably, 11-5-2, .915, 2.60 and even 2 shutouts for good measure. Of course, he has no postseason experience at the NHL level!

Edge: (Slight, because of Emery's postseason experience) Anaheim

Prediction: Anaheim in seven games

References

"Official Site of the National Hockey League." NHL.com. N.p., n.d. Web. 04 April 2011.

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