Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Playoff Predictions Part 1

Another exciting NHL regular season is in the books. But so begins the "real" season. The part where we separate the men from boys, champions from chumps, contenders from pretenders, etc.

Lets look at half of what to see in the post season, and what is going to decide the series.

Washington vs Montreal

The league's strongest offense faces off against the team that is making it's 72nd playoff appearance. The Canadians are going to need all of the goaltending, tradition and fan support if they hope to make a series out of this. To give you an idea of what they are up against (Name, Goals/Assists/Points):

Alex Ovechkin 50/59/109
Nicklas Backstrom 33/68/101
Alexander Semin 40/44/84
Mike Green 19/57/76
Brooks Laich 25/34/59
Mike Knuble 29/24/53
Tomas Fleischmann 23/28/51

Yep, that's one high-octane offence. The Caps goaltending and defence, while not great, is certainly good. Good enough that the offence can take care of matters without having to worry about what's happening at the other end. Mike Green is a Norris Trophy candidate. Theodore and Varlamov (who performed VERY good in last year's playoffs) are two very different goalies, but BOTH are capable. Theodore has the experience, and Varlamov has the quick learning. And since Varlamov performed so well as a rookie in last year, I can see no reason to assume he will be below par this year.

Montreal, meanwhile, has Thomas Plekanec, Scott Gomez, Michael Cammalleri, Brian Gionta and a host of others for a good balanced scoring. As a team, however, they scored almost 100 less goals than Washington. What they have going for them (on the ice) is their goaltending. Indeed, this might be their only edge in this series. Carey Price and Jaroslov Halak have the inevitable task.

Halak's numbers (26 Wins, 13 Losses, 5 Ties, 2.40 goals-against average, .924 save percentage, 5 shutouts), on the surface, might not be eye popping. But a closer look reveals that Jaroslov was in the top five in shutouts, goals against average and save percentage. He does not, however have much in the way of playoff experience.

Price's numbers did a nose dive this year, but it is likely that he will see some action if Halak falters. He DOES have playoff experience (some good, some bad). The mental stress of playing against Washington might be too much to ask of one goalie.

Prediction: Washington in 5 games

Ottawa vs Pittsburgh

Round three (in the last four years) between these two teams. It's immaterial, but back in 2007, Ottawa prevailed in five games against the young lions. But reality quickly set in the next year as the Pens blew down the Ottawa house in four games.

Much has changed since the the first time these teams met, and much has even changed since the last post season meeting. Most notably, the Pens have the confidence, the goaltending, and the offence to be consistant contenders.

First, lets start in goal. Mark Andre Fleury. Some of my hockey friends argued that he's had an off-season. The stats don't show it. Okay, he got only one shutout and he finished outside the top ten in goals against average and save percentage. He did however, finish 8th in the league in wins and 10th in games played. And then there is the matter of his last two playoff seasons: nothing short of excellent! It might be too early to tell, but I look at Marc as a "money" goalie (When the game is on the line, so is Marc). Nothing I've seen in him suggests otherwise.

Then there is the matter of the Pens offence. Lets look right down the middle at the first three scoring lines: Crosby, Malkin and Staal!

 Now if that's not the best three centers on one team, then I don't know what is. Crosby, scary to think, has added to his game this year. With a league leading 51 goals, uh oh, he's scoring like he's never scored before. Then there was THE goal back in February. To give you an idea how he's playing going into the post season, lets look at his last nine regular season games:

2010-03-24 vs WSH, 1 assist, plus a shootout goal
2010-03-27 vs PHI, 3 assists
2010-03-28 vs TOR, 2 goals, plus a shootout goal
2010-03-31 vs TBL, held scoreless, proving he is human!
2010-04-03 vs ATL, 3 assists
2010-04-06 vs WSH, 1 goal, 2 assists
2010-04-08 vs NYI, 1 goal, 3 assists
2010-04-10 vs ATL, held scoreless, proving he is human again!
2010-04-11 vs NYI, 2 goals, 3 assists, proving he is inhuman!

That's twenty-one points in nine games! If Crosby continues this pace, he's in for one postseason to remember.

Then there is Malkin. Injured for 15 games, he still managed 28 goals and 77 points. How good is he? That's an OFF-SEASON by his standards. Anyone remember last year? I do. Malkin was everywhere! He didn't just win the Conn Smythe award for his offence. I expect a postseason return to the Malkin of old.

Then there is Jordan Staal, 21 goals and 49 points. The iron man of this Pens team, having missed a grand total of ONE game in last four seasons. He kills penalties, skates well for person his size, and has maybe the longest reach in the NHL.

The Penguins also have solid D with Sergi Gonchar and Kris Letang. The other D-man aren't that impressive, but with that offense and goaltending, Pitt isn't going to need it.

As for the Senators, they've got something they have lacked in previous postseasons: size. Indeed, Andy Sutton, Jared Cowen, Filip Kuba and Chris Phillips. Four solid defencemen. Size of the SMALLEST above mentioned? 6-3 (Kuba).

Alfredson, Speeza, Fisher and Kovalev provide the offence for the Sens, who allowed more goals (238), then they scored (225). Yet they finished with 44 wins and 94 points, with winning streaks of 11 and 6 games at various points in the season. They are going to need for some, if not all, of their guns to step it up to make the Penguins work.

The problem I see here for Ottawa is their goaltending. The two goaltenders, Pascual Leclair (backup) and Brian Elliot (starter) have NO postseason experience, let alone any postseason games against a team like the Pens. This could be one obstacle that is really going to be the deciding factor. The Penguins are notorious for feasting off shaky goaltending. If the Penguins get a few early goals, the Sens will find themselves playing wide open hockey, which is not what you want with some fresh faces in goal.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in six

Detroit vs Phoenix

A year ago, the Coyotes were in disarray. Bankrupted and in second last in the Western Conference, having missed the postseason for the SIXTH straight season. A .500 finish this year? Maybe. A post season berth? Never! A second place finish in their division? Get out of here! 100 plus points and a fourth place finish in the Conference? Bet the house, the farm, and mortgage against THAT!

Yet, here we are...and HERE come the Coyotes this season. Having done ALL of the above, and backed up by some stellar goaltending and strong defence, the Coyotes allowed the third fewest goals in the NHL this season! (I know, there just may be a god in Phoenix).

Ilya Bryzgalov came through with 42 wins, 2.29 goals against average, 8 shutouts and a .920 save percentage. First thing to take care of: does Ilya have any post-season experience?

Yes. With Anaheim in the 2006 and 2007 post seasons, he posted a combined record of 9-5 with 1.68 goals against average. For those who remember, Anaheim won the Cup in 2007! So does that sound like something to go with? Absolutely.

Next on the agenda in a series like this is the defence. Keith Yandle has gotten better with every season and is the 'yotes best defencemen. Ed Jovanovski might not be as good as he once was (and being hurt this year might not help), but look for him to make contributions.

Offensively, the Coyotes used a balanced attack similar to the Habs. Radim Vrbata led the team with 24 goals and the veteran Shane Doan led the team in points (53). The team did feature ten players with 10 or more goals, so the offence can be there.

Detroit was a tale of two cities this year. Both of the cities were named Detroit, however. On Feb 11th, the team was 27-21-12, behind Calgary and in 9th spot in the West. But then came a shifting of the tide. Following a win before the Olympic break, and two weeks off, the Wings went 17-3-2, including a seven game winning streak in March / April. The question is, are they the Wings of old (as in the last two years) or the new Wings (Good, but suddenly not much better than any post season team) ?

Statistically, it looks like the latter. The team went from 295 goals last season to just 229 this season. However, having given up 244 goals last season, the team did improve in that area. This year's Wings gave up just 216, well below the league average of 233 per team. Only seven teams (Phoenix among them) gave up fewer goals this season.

Offensively, Detroit featured the usual standout performances from Pavel Datsyuk (70 points), Henrik Zetterberg (also 70 points), Nicklas Lidstrom (49 points) and Thomas Holmstrom (45 points). The defence is good with Brad Stuart, Brian Rafalski, and Lidstrom.

But Detroit will need to overcome being saddled a rookie goalie in Jimmy Howard. He played well this year, going 35-15-10 with a .924 save percentage and 2.26 goals against average. Both his save % and GAA were good enough for 5th in the league. However, can that overcome zero postseason experience at the NHL level AND a losing record (12-17) with a high GAA 2.74 in 30 career postseason games at the AHL level? Perhaps. In years past, the Wings have always had that "other" goalie to turn to if things didn't pan out in the postseason. But Chris Osgood was very inconsistant this season, posting a losing record (7-9-4) and a high goals against average (3.02).

Granted he had a high GAA last season and low save percentage, but the question is: What happens if Howard falters? To turn to Osgood would be obvious, but in order for that to work Osgood would need to be ready for the post season. And he's not, having played just 23 games this season.

There is still one more problem. Yes, Phoenix hasn't won a playoff series since 1987. Yes, Phoenix has never beaten Detroit in a playoff series. But there is something else this year: Phoenix is starting this series at home! That shifts the advantage to Phoenix.

Look, these teams are 50-50, but I'm going with my gut here.

Prediction: Phoenix in seven

Colorado vs San Jose

Speaking of teams that have turned things around, Colorado is back to what they're used to, 90+ points and a postseason berth. Since moving from...Quebec back in 95/96 (I know, sniff, sniff. But don't hold your breath on a return. Same to you Winnipeg!) , the Avs have posted THIRTEEN seasons of 90 points or more. However, this will be a different Colorado Avalanche from the past. Most notably, they're missing Joe Sakic, having retired after last season.

In the post season, they were few if any, better clutch goal scorers than Joe. Remember, this is a guy who has EIGHT overtime goals in the postseason, the most of any player, ever. Moreover, you just knew, if the game was close, Joe would get the goal.

Also, Forsberg would make the play, or Roy would make the stop. Alas, none of those players are around anymore, either.

Colorado's new Sakic would be Paul Stastny. Leading the team in points with 79, he was the only Av to get as many as 70 points. Winger Chris Stewart lead the team with just 28 goals. Still, again, this is a team with balanced scoring. Nine Avalanche netted ten or more goals. Plus one of them is super rookie Matt Duchene, with 24. Darcy Tucker provides grit, goals and some post season experience.

What this team is going to need is goaltending. Colorado has struggled to find a goalie to stick with since the retirement of Roy. And how do you replace his post-season excellence?

What you do is get is get Craig Anderson. The good news? He's probably, along with the entire Colorado team, Phoenix team and Los Angeles team, the feel good story of the year. Here's someone who was drafted 77th overall (3rd round) way back in the 1999 draft. He went nowhere and eventually re-entered the draft two seasons later where he was again picked in the third round! He's bounced around since then, Chicago, Calgary and this season, Colorado. He was picked up on waivers THREE times within a month in 2006! Has he found a home? Coming into this year his record was 35 wins 43 losses, 13 ties/overtime and shootout losses.

But this year has been Craig's career year so far. The bad news: Craig surrendered more goals (186) than any other goalie in the NHL this year. Lost 25 games for sixth in the league. Postseason? Better not go there! Now for the good news: 71 games played, 38 wins, 2233 shots against, 2047 saves, .924 save percentage, ALL top ten.

But we can't overlook the fact that he has not played in the NHL postseason. Nor can we overlook the fact that his postseason record in the OHL was 0-7 with a 4.01 GAA lifetime. His AHL record is a little better 8-15 with a 2.44 GAA. But still, this is one question mark that might not be answered correctly in this postseason. A switch to Peter Budaj is possible, but he has played just 15 games this season and just three total postseason games at the NHL level.

Now, to San Jose.

Can anyone please explain to me what is it with this team in the postseason? Remember back in '91/92 or 1 BB, (Before Bettman) when this team came to the NHL. Ottawa (finalist in 2007) and Tampa Bay (Stanley Cup Winner in 2004) came in the next season, then Anaheim (finalist in 2003, Stanley Cup winner in 2007) and Florida (finalist in 1996) came next. San Jose? They've reached the Conference Final once, back before the new NHL (2004). Other than that, a lot of frustration! So San Jose has had the least amount of success of any of the new five teams in the early 90s.

They've been steady, 99 or more points in the last six seasons, but their trips to the postseason have ended in early golfing season for many a year. Will this year be different? I tend to think so.

The addition of Danny Heatley gives them an even more potent offense. If you can't stop the opposition, fill their nets with pucks, that will stop them! Yes, they have THREE 80-point men on this team (Thornton, Marleau and Heatley), plus defencemen Dan Boyle (58 points). Overall, the team lit the red light 264 times, while giving up just 215 goals, good enough for seventh overall in goals allowed.

Evgeni Nabokov? The guy has been, and definitely CAN be good in the postseason. Will this year be that good? I'm predicting yes, because I like the team in front of him. Evgeni might not have to play THAT well, so as long as he does not let in any timely goals. 44 wins ranked him just one behind Martin Brodeur, and while why can't compare, he HAS been there the last eight times for this team in the postseason. That's experience.

Speaking of which, you also have Rob Blake on defence, and that's also more than 130 games in the postseason. In case you haven't gotten it now. I believe there is only so long a team can underachieve in the postseason and given the shallow opposition (they scored about 20 more goals and allowed 18 fewer goals than Colorado) plus Anderson's lack of postseason NHL experience makes me lean towards a chompin' for the stick chompin' logos!

Prediction: San Jose in six



References


"Official Site Of The National Hockey League." NHL.com. The National Hockey League, n.d. Web. 04 Apr. 2010. <http://www.nhl.com/>.

Sports Reference LLC. Hockey-Reference.com - Hockey Statistics and History. http://www.hockey-reference.com/. Web. 04 April. 2010.

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